Mission Success Calculator
Model reliability across your launch campaign
Calculate the probability of mission success based on spacecraft complexity, launch vehicle reliability, mission duration, redundancy systems, and destination environment — using real historical success/failure data. Input your mission parameters and see an estimated success probability, the most likely failure modes, and how adding redundancy or choosing a more reliable rocket changes your odds.
💡 The overall success rate of Mars missions is about 50% — space is hard. Modern missions with redundant systems achieve closer to 80-90%.
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Rocket Reliability Leaderboard
1
Falcon Heavy
EliteSpaceX
100%
2
Vulcan Centaur
EliteULA
100%
3
Ariane 6
EliteArianespace
100%
4
GSLV Mk III (LVM3)
EliteISRO
100%
5
SLS Block 1
EliteNASA / Boeing
100%
6
Falcon 9
EliteSpaceX
99.4%
7
Long March 2D
EliteCASC
98.5%
8
H-IIA
HighJAXA / MHI
97.9%
9
Soyuz-2
HighRoscosmos
97.8%
10
PSLV
HighISRO
96.4%
11
Electron
ModerateRocket Lab
93%
12
Long March 5
ModerateCASC
90%
13
H3
DevelopingJAXA / MHI
83%
14
New Glenn
DevelopingBlue Origin
80%
15
Nuri (KSLV-II)
DevelopingKARI
75%
16
Vega-C
DevelopingArianespace
75%
17
Firefly Alpha
DevelopingFirefly Aerospace
60%
18
Starship
DevelopingSpaceX
50%
19
Neutron
DevelopingRocket Lab
0%
Frequently asked questions
What is the success rate of Mars missions?
Historically, only about 50% of all Mars missions have succeeded — space is hard. Recent decades have improved dramatically: NASA missions to Mars since 2000 have a >85% success rate, while Soviet/Russian missions to Mars sit closer to 20%. ISRO succeeded with its very first attempt (Mangalyaan, 2014).
Which rocket has the best reliability?
Atlas V leads the modern era with a >99% success rate over 100+ launches. SpaceX Falcon 9 is at ~98% across 350+ launches and is the most flown orbital rocket in history. Soyuz, with 1,900+ launches since 1966, has the longest service record with a ~97% success rate.
How is mission success rate calculated?
Success rate is the number of fully successful missions divided by total launches, expressed as a percentage. Some agencies track partial successes (where the payload reached an orbit but not the targeted one) separately. For multi-launch campaigns, the cumulative success probability is each launch's reliability multiplied together.
What are the most common failure modes?
Roughly 40% of orbital launch failures occur in the first two minutes (max-Q stress). Other common modes include upper-stage ignition failures (~25%), avionics or guidance faults (~15%), payload deployment problems (~10%) and pad anomalies (~10%). Modern reliability gains come from extensive ground testing and flight-proven hardware.