Long March Next-Generation Launch Vehicles
Long March (长征) next-generation rockets are the propulsion backbone of China's 2025-2035 space ambitions — from the operational Long March 5 / 5B heavy-lift (Tiangong, Chang'e-6, Tianwen) and the medium-class Long March 7 / 7A / 8, through the in-development Long March 10 crewed lunar launcher (NET 2027 maiden flight, ~70 t to LEO) and the Long March 9 super-heavy (NET 2030, ~150 t target) [1][2][3]. The family powers nearly every Chinese state space ambition; CASC primes are unlisted state-owned entities, but commercial new-entrants LandSpace, Galactic Energy and Space Pioneer compete from below with reusable kerolox vehicles backed by Chinese private equity [4][5].
Funding & Contract Structure
Total committed: Cumulative R&D and production cost across the Long March next-generation family not officially disclosed; CSIS / OECD comparative methodology estimates Chinese civil-space spend at ~$14B equivalent in 2023, with the launch-vehicle portfolio one of the largest single line items inside that total [12]
Annual run-rate: CASC announced approximately 100 launches planned in 2024 across commercial and state customers (achieved >65); the Long March family delivered the majority of those flights, with the remainder picked up by commercial primes (LandSpace, Galactic Energy, Space Pioneer) [13]
Per launch: Western analyst estimates of unit cost: Long March 5 / 5B ~$180-220M-equivalent; Long March 7 ~$60-80M; Long March 3B ~$70M; Long March 12 designed for ~$30-40M reusable target; no official CASC per-launch disclosure [14]
Procurement vehicle: COST-PLUS — Government pays incurred costs plus a fee — contractor bears low risk; cost overruns common.
Congressional status: Long March is embedded in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and the forthcoming 15th FYP; the LM-9 reusable redesign and LM-10 crewed-lunar programme were publicly endorsed by the State Council and the Central Military Commission [15]
GAO / CRS findings
| Date | Finding |
|---|---|
| USCC 2023 Annual Report concluded that the Long March family — and especially the LM-5B and forthcoming LM-9 — provides PLA-aligned heavy-lift capability that materially supports both civil and dual-use military space programmes[16] | |
| NASA Administrator Bill Nelson publicly criticised the uncontrolled re-entry of Long March 5B Y3 (Wentian launch) and called on China to adopt controlled de-orbit practices for the heavy-lift core stage[17] |
Beneficiary Breakdown
| Contractor | Role | Share | Ticker |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) | prime | State-owned enterprise parent for the Long March family; CASC's wholly-owned subsidiaries CALT and SAST design, integrate and operate every Long March vehicle generation. Unlisted parent.[6] | private |
| China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) | prime | CASC subsidiary that designs and produces the Long March 2F, 3B, 5, 5B, 7, 10 (in development) and 9 (in development); Beijing-based engineering and assembly footprint. Unlisted state-owned enterprise.[6] | private |
| Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST) | prime | CASC subsidiary that designs and produces the Long March 4 and Long March 6 series and contributes to LM-8 and LM-12 development; Shanghai-based assembly footprint. Unlisted state-owned enterprise.[6] | private |
| Academy of Aerospace Solid Propulsion Technology (AASPT) | sub | CASC subsidiary producing solid-rocket motors for Long March variants and the Kuaizhou / smart-dragon series; supplier into the broader Long March booster architecture.[18] | private |
| Beijing Aerospace Propulsion Institute (BAPI) | sub | CASC subsidiary developing the YF-100K kerolox engine (Long March 10 and Long March 12) and the next-generation YF-130 engine (Long March 9 reusable variant). Unlisted state-owned enterprise.[7] | private |
| LandSpace (commercial peer) | sub | Private launcher new-entrant whose ZQ-2 methalox vehicle reached orbit in July 2023 (first methalox orbital launch globally); private-sector competition to LM-7 / LM-8 medium-class. Privately held, China-domiciled.[4] | private |
Key Milestones
Long March 5 maiden flight from Wenchang — first Chinese heavy-lift launcher with 25 t LEO / 14 t GTO capacity
Long March 7 maiden flight from Wenchang — medium-class kerolox launcher; primary Tianzhou cargo workhorse for Tiangong
Long March 8 maiden flight — medium-class launcher designed for partial first-stage recovery (initial demonstrator)
LandSpace ZQ-2 — first orbital launch by a Chinese commercial provider using methalox propulsion (also the first methalox orbital launch globally)
Long March 5 Y8 launches Chang'e-6 from Wenchang for the first ever far-side sample-return mission
Long March 12 maiden flight from the Hainan Commercial Spaceport — first Chinese state-designed launcher built for first-stage reusability
Long March 12 first-stage vertical-landing demonstration sequence begins
Long March 10 maiden flight (3-core kerolox) targeted — primary crewed-lunar launcher for Mengzhou and Lanyue lander
Long March 10A maiden flight — single-core variant replacing LM-2F for crewed Tiangong rotations
Long March 9 super-heavy maiden flight targeted (reusable architecture) — ~150 t LEO target; underpins ILRS and Mars sample-return architectures
Catalysts
| Date | Event | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Long March 12 reusable first-stage vertical-landing demonstrations — first Chinese state operational vehicle designed for reuse; Hainan Commercial Spaceport launches[10] | bullish | |
| Long March 8A medium-class launcher entering high-cadence megaconstellation duty for Guowang and Qianfan / G60 satellite networks (~25,000 satellites combined)[11] | bullish | |
| Long March 10 maiden flight — 3-core kerolox vehicle targeted for the Mengzhou crewed capsule and Lanyue lunar lander launches[7] | bullish | |
| Long March 10A single-core variant maiden flight — replaces LM-2F for crewed Shenzhou-class rotations to Tiangong[3] | bullish | |
| Long March 9 super-heavy maiden flight (reusable architecture redesign) — ~150 t to LEO target; underpins ILRS construction and crewed Mars precursor capability[9] | neutral |
Risk Register
Competitive Landscape
Investability Map
| Ticker | Exposure | Note |
|---|---|---|
| N/A | low | No publicly listed pure-play Long March exposure — CASC, CALT, SAST and BAPI are unlisted state-owned enterprises. Public-equity investors cannot directly capture Long March upside. |
| SHA: 600118 | low | China Spacesat Co. (CASC-affiliated, Shanghai-listed satellite developer) provides limited indirect Chinese state-space exposure; Long March content is small relative to satellite-bus production. |
| SHA: 600879 | low | Aerospace Hi-tech Holding (CASC-affiliated, Shanghai-listed) is the most exposed CASC-affiliated A-share listing for launch-related supply, though the consolidated business mix is dominated by defence electronics. |
| N/A | low | LandSpace, Galactic Energy and Space Pioneer are privately held VC-backed launchers; an IPO of any of the three could create the first listed pure-play Chinese commercial launch exposure, but no firm timeline has been announced. |
| N/A | low | CASC and its subsidiaries are on or adjacent to U.S. entity-list / NS-CMIC sanctions lists; most Western institutional investment mandates cannot hold the relevant Chinese A-shares regardless of fundamentals. |
Not investment advice. Figures as-quoted from cited sources.
Sources
- [1] CASC (China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation) — Launch Vehicles portal (Official company site, accessed )
- [2] SpaceNews — Long March family launch tracker and technical overviews (Andrew Jones) (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [3] SpaceNews — China's Long March 10 design specifications for crewed lunar landing (Andrew Jones) (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [4] SpaceNews — LandSpace ZQ-2 first orbital methalox launch (July 2023) (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [5] Ars Technica — China's commercial launch industry survey: LandSpace, Galactic Energy, Space Pioneer (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [6] China Daily — CASC, CALT and SAST organisational structure and launch portfolio (Agency press / Congressional record, accessed )
- [7] Xinhua — CMSA announces Long March 10 + Mengzhou + Lanyue architecture for crewed lunar landing (Agency press / Congressional record, accessed )
- [8] SpaceNews — Long March 9 reusable redesign disclosed (Andrew Jones, 2023) (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [9] Ars Technica — Long March 9 redesigned for reuse; maiden flight slips to 2030+ (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [10] SpaceNews — Long March 12 maiden flight from Hainan Commercial Spaceport (November 30, 2024) (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [11] SpaceNews — China's Guowang and Qianfan / G60 megaconstellation deployment cadence (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [12] CSIS ChinaPower — China's Space Programme assessment (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [13] Xinhua — China targets ~100 orbital launches in 2024 across state and commercial providers (Agency press / Congressional record, accessed )
- [14] Ars Technica — Pricing analysis of Long March family vs. commercial peers (Eric Berger) (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [15] China Daily — 14th Five-Year Plan space launch objectives and 15th FYP roadmap signals (Agency press / Congressional record, accessed )
- [16] U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) — 2023 Annual Report (China in Space) (GAO / CRS report, accessed )
- [17] NASA — Administrator statement on Long March 5B uncontrolled re-entries (Agency budget doc, accessed )
- [18] China Daily — Academy of Aerospace Solid Propulsion Technology (AASPT) solid-motor portfolio (Agency press / Congressional record, accessed )
- [19] U.S. Department of Commerce / BIS — Entity List CASC and Chinese aerospace designations (Agency budget doc, accessed )