| Top risks | Vega C cadence and reliability — a single failure would hit both the new commercial-prime P&L and the launch backlog.; Execution risk running a US greenfield expansion and a European production ramp simultaneously. | Ariane 6 must sustain a high double-digit annual cadence to be cost-competitive; any production or Kourou ground-infrastructure bottleneck cascades into Amazon Leo and ESA commitments.; Reusability gap versus SpaceX — a prior ArianeGroup CEO publicly called a reusable Ariane 6 "not economically interesting"; if MaiaSpace/Themis underdeliver, Europe stays structurally cost-disadvantaged. | Neutron development risk: a stage-1 tank rupture during hydrostatic qualification testing on 21 January 2026 caused the debut to slip to Q4 2026; any further major setbacks could erode investor confidence and require additional capital.; Customer concentration: SDA and U.S. defense represent the majority of backlog; any budget sequestration or program changes in DoD space spending would materially impact near-term revenue visibility. | Flight 2 outcome is the dominant risk — the first Spectrum flight on 30 March 2025 was terminated by the Flight Termination System ~30 seconds after liftoff due to a vent-valve opening and roll-control loss; a second consecutive failure would be near-existential; Production ramp from one rocket per year (R&D cadence) to 6–10 per year (commercial cadence) is unproven and capital-intensive; the €150M Eldridge convertible buys runway but a Series D is required |